These thoughts from Protocol Newsletter

Good morning! The stock market is tanking and crypto, which has been on a meteoric rise, has seen its gains wiped out what feels like overnight. Maybe WAGMI and HODL aren’t gonna cut it anymore. I’m Owen Thomas, and I think of myself less as a no-coiner and more as a d’oh-coiner.

Also, we want to know the first device that changed your life. Read the bottom for more, then respond to this email and let us know.

Crypto winter is here

As Coinbase shares entered free-fall, bitcoin kept crashing and the UST depeg made its way to the Capitol, there doesn’t seem to be much point in asking if we’re heading toward a crypto winter anymore. Winter isn’t coming, Jon Snow. It’s here.

“Have no fear, it’s peer-to-peer!” Crypto isn’t a democracy, it’s a cheerocracy. And the collapse of asset prices is totally spoiling the feel-good, “we’re all gonna make it” vibes that helped fuel crypto upwards in 2021.

Let’s be real: There’s a part of the crypto world that doesn’t really care about the blockchain or tokenomics or smart contracts. They’re just in it for the fun and the promise of making money. Even as the market was melting down, internet manners expert turned Web3 promoter Randi Zuckerberg was still making peppy videos. Her latest is about Ethereum, to the tune of “Titanium.” I watched it so you don’t have to. No word on whether David Guetta has sued her yet.
There’s a whole generation of TikTok crypto influencers who are extremely confused and upset right now. What happens when they stop using Cash App to buy bitcoin?
Bored Ape prices are trending down, but don’t pay attention to that! “The #1 rule … WE DO NOT TALK ABOUT FLOOR PRICE,” Zuckerberg instructed us, and she has a .eth domain name, so we better listen.

When the tide goes out, we learn who’s swimming naked. Seriously, couldn’t they have bought some Speedos along with their Lambos? Price charts that go down and to the right — they can do that? — are providing a stress test for crypto, and some are flunking.

The most naked of all is the Terra network and its UST token. UST is an algorithmic stablecoin, which means it’s backed up not by dollar-for-dollar reserves like Circle’s USDC, but by a series of programs that are supposed to automatically burn or mint UST to keep the price steady.
Here’s the catch: After a big drop in bitcoin shook the crypto markets, UST lost its peg to the dollar. Its backers attempted a rescue, but didn’t have nearly enough funds. And the automated systems, it turned out, had a big flaw: They worked too slowly to catch up with all of the people trying to dump their UST.
Traders are smart — smarter than UST’s smart contracts, apparently. They did the math and sold or shorted luna, a corresponding token that’s supposed to be swappable for UST dollar for dollar. Are you confused yet? Maybe that’s part of the point: UST’s algorithmic complexity may have always been a facade.

The regulators are watching this all with alarm. Stablecoins were already a hot topic for their risks to the financial system.

The UST debacle caught the attention of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who called it a “bank run” in a Senate Banking Committee hearing Tuesday. EU regulators are also watching — and considering banning large-scale stablecoins altogether.
Oh, and there’s this: Do Kwon, the head of Terraform Labs, the firm that developed UST, was reportedly behind another failed stablecoin called Basis Cash. His involvement wasn’t known because, like many in the crypto world, he operated under a pseudonym.

The last crypto winter came amid crashing prices and a regulatory crackdown on initial coin offerings. The question now becomes how long this one will last. Coinbase has lost 85% of its value, and Robinhood, which has made crypto a key part of its global expansion strategy, has been hit nearly as hard. The new buyers lured in by social media crypto cheerleaders and ubiquitous advertising might understandably feel burned. The thing is, with its overheated Web3 rhetoric about wealth and freedom, the crypto industry dug this hole for itself. Want out? Get a shovel.

Crypto Crash: Is Now The Time To Buy The Dip?

From Updated: May 11, 2022, 2 Mark Hooson Forbes Staff

As Bitcoin (BTC) this week fell below $33,000 for the first time in around 12 months and with Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA) also tumbling, the crypto market appears to be crashing – or at least going through a major correction.

Given the old investment adage ‘buy the dip’, investors may now be looking for a piece of the volatile crypto market in hopes this marks a temporary downturn rather than a long-term bear market.

If you’re thinking now is the time to buy, here’s a look at previous trends, some expert opinion and tips on buying if you’re new to cryptocurrency.

Significant losses

Month on month*, the price of BTC is down more than 20% to around $32,000USD today. Back in November 2021, it traded for as much as $69,000. A more-than 50% drop represents significant losses.

ETH saw similar losses to Bitcoin over the past month, down to around $2,400USD, while Cardano (ADA) suffered even worse, falling by almost a third (32%) to $0.69USD.

While this doesn’t yet match the severity of the 2018 crash, in which Bitcoin lost 80% of its value, experts say things could still get worse for those left holding BTC.

It’s these kinds of losses that have prompted the UK finance regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), to issue repeated warnings to crypto investors. It says there are no guarantees of returns and that people should be prepared to lose everything they invest.

Inflation, downturn and war

Co-founder of automated crypto trading platform Coinrule, Oleg Giberstein, thinks crypto is undergoing the same stresses as other parts of the economy, leading to the fall in prices.

He said: “It’s not just crypto that’s down, everything is down, and over the next 6-12 months the economic outlook is bad. Central Banks are between a rock and a hard place with regard to slow economic growth and high inflation. So, investors are escaping ‘risk-on’ assets like crypto and tech stocks.”

As for whether this downturn marks the beginning of a long-term trend or a temporary blip, Giberstein believes the market could remain challenging for up to two years, but added things could worsen during that time.

Sam Kopelman of crypto exchange Luno agreed that Bitcoin and other coins’ misfortunes weren’t happening in isolation: “Falling below $30,000 leaves bitcoin on the precipice of a key support level. If Bitcoin falls below this support level, it could even drop further to $25,000 before any significant move back up.

“Investors dumped assets across the board yesterday as global stocks suffered the worst day since June 2020. The market is battling the consequences of rapidly rising US interest rates, alongside military conflict in Europe.”

Inflation information out this week from the US Labor Department and the UK’s Office for National Statistics will likely have a knock-on effect for interest rates and, in turn, crypto prices.

Kopelman says the reports in the US and UK should provide more clarity of market moves over the coming weeks, but expects a volatile week ahead.

Is ‘buy the dip’ a good strategy?

The principle of ‘buy the dip’ is based on an assumption price drops are temporary aberrations that correct themselves over time. Dip buyers hope to exploit dips by buying at a relative discount and reaping the rewards when prices rise again.

Crypto markets are volatile, so buying cryptocurrencies at any price – let alone a dip that might become a long-term trend – is risky. While prices could return to previous levels, they could also fall even further, leaving your investment underwater.

If the past is prologue, then the current dip (or crash, depending on your perspective) could bounce back as it did last year, when prices fell to similar levels before returning to pre-dip levels and even peaking in the autumn. But of course, they might not.

Bitcoin prices in particular have shown a degree of seasonality to date, appearing to fall in value to lesser or greater extents in the spring before bouncing back in early summer. However, as with every kind of investment, let alone the unpredictable world of cryptocurrencies, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Oleg Giberstein said: “Many a novice investor has been burned trying to ‘catch falling knives’”.

He advises those committed to ‘buying the dip’ to decide on a set amount of money they’re comfortable with using to buy BTC or ETH each month and not to worry too much about what happens to prices over the next two years.

Pavel Matveev of digital exchange Wirex advises buyers to hedge their bets. He said: “It’s important to diversify your crypto portfolios with different altcoins to mitigate risks.”

How to buy cryptocurrency

If you’re new to investing in cryptocurrency, we’ve put together a guide to walk you through the process, including how to choose a platform, what fees are involved and alternatives to buying coins directly. Read our How to Buy Cryptocurrency guide here.

Staff writer Mark Hooson has been a journalist within the personal finance, consumer affairs and fraud sectors for more than 10 years. He is also Forbes Advisor UK’s resident tech expert. Mark says he thrives on making ‘complicated and dry topics easier to digest’.

Update 5-12-2022 From Unnamed Crypto Expert

Final boss battle deathmatch is underway right now in the financial markets

Right now Bitcoin has broken below the 2021 lows, and you can buy it for the cheapest price in 2 years.

Honestly it could go either way.

If it holds it’s the buy of the century. If it fails here it’s probably got a ways to go.

BTC is currently down 60% from ATH, and previous bear markets are 80-85% drops.

So if it holds here, it could be a buy point that is never threatened for years.

Or you could be facing another 30%-ish down.

The stonk market looks tanked, so that’s dragging it down.

The 5 minute chart showed a lot of buying actually. But this doesn’t smell like THE bottom.

If you wanna pick at it, wait a bit.

If we look at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 you can see that we are down about 20% in the broader market in a classic 2-legged pullback.

In other words, closer to the end than the beginning UNLESS we start a full blown end-of-days recession.

Personal Note from Dale. I believe I will see the end-of-days-recession, so don’t take that phrase too lightly. As a Christian, I believe the rapture is near, it could happen while I am writing, or 50 years from now, but I do believe it is near. I am not worried about the “end-of-days”. My goal is to live each day to its fullest, and do the best I can to love my family, and contribute while I am here. I try to live by this verse.

Luke 19:13
Calling ten of his servants, he gave them ten minas, and said to them, ‘Engage in business until I return.’

Weirdly this is about where most savage pullbacks end.

It’s not impossible that the stock market attracts a serious amount of buying soon.

That doesn’t tell the full story though.

The bubble stocks that got the pandemic gains are CRUSHED.

Amazon, the best run company in the world, is back to pre-pandemic prices.

That’s a legit bargain, a million miles away from the meme stock crap of the last year.

At these levels, stocks are actually making sense.

This is a few weeks old chart but you can see it clearly. The bubble parts of the market are now back to where they should be.

Of course it all comes down to the Fed. Without the Fed backstop or if the Fed screws it up… things are gonna get ugly.

Here’s the thing.

You SHOULDN’T play macro tourist here.

What I mean is that when you think you’re being smart by regurgitating “something something inflation buy gold something money printing depression” you really aren’t.

It’s the dumbest move in the world, and I never get it right when I play that so you probably won’t either.

Here’s the deal. Finance is hard (as the last few days humblingly taught all of us, including me)

You get paid for doing things that are…

1) TECHNICALLY HARD – doing crap other people can’t do (like crashing UST/LUNA and taking all their cash)

2) EMOTIONALLY HARD – like holding when others are capitulating.

So the real question is “what’s emotionally hard here?”

Buying your favorite alts down 90% from all time highs… hard.

Ignoring the news…. hard.

If you have alts… don’t sell here… maybe if we get a real capitulation you can buy a little more. Does dollar-cost-averaging make sense for you at the moment? Only you can answer that.

Many ALTS are the cheapest we will probably ever see them at the moment!

Polygon (Matic) around 7 cents, are you kidding me?
Sandbox $1.25
Gala Games .07
Helium HNT $10.00
I bought Illuvium at $1,500 and today I can pick it up for less than $300? You get the idea. If you have
companies and projects you believe in, at some point in the future, you will probably be wishing you
could go back to this day in history. Tough call, I know, but as they say, forture favors the bold.

I am DCA my positions & I’m trying to pick up is some BTC and some WOO (if I can get it for .10 that’s a steal)

Good Luck out there, ride it out, or double down, I gues that is our only options at the moment.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Crash Hard — Is This A ‘Tremendous Opportunity’ For Investors?

From Trend Advisor May 09, 2022

Bitcoin and Ethereum crashed more than 10% at press time amid a marketwide rout as the global cryptocurrency market cap dropped sharply by 11.3% to $1.4 trillion.

Coin	24-hour	7-day	Price
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC)	-10.9%	-21.3%	$30,328.44
Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH)	-11.4%	-21.8%	$2,233.98
Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE)	-17.4%	-21.4%	$0.10

Cryptocurrency	24-Hour % Change (+/-)	Price
Terra (LUNA)	-46.5%	$33.99
STEPN (GMT)	-29.3%	1.90
Lido DAO Protocol (LDO)	-27.8%	â€‹â€‹$2.02

See Also: How To Get Free Crypto

Why It Matters: Selling pressure was high on Monday, especially with tech stocks, as investors shed stocks, bonds and commodities. The S&P500 fell below the 4,000 mark to touch its lowest level since March 2021.

The dollar index hit its 20-year high on Monday at $104.090. The greenback has risen nearly 9% so far in 2022, according to a Reuters report.

While Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals have remained unchanged, growth and recession worries have created a “very difficult environment” for cryptocurrencies, according to Edward Moya, a senior market analyst with OANDA.

“No one is looking to buy the crypto dip just yet and that leaves Bitcoin vulnerable here,” Moya wrote in a note, seen by Benzinga. â€‹

Macro headwinds aside, the cryptocurrency space is also facing another concern, according to GlobalBlock analyst Marcus Sotiriou.

TerraUSD (UST) lost its peg with the dollar after an alleged coordinated attack on the stablecoin, Sotiriou said. At press time, UST traded 25.26% lower over 24 hours at $0.74.

Even so, the analyst sees some positives in on-chain metrics, pointing out that the “percentage of Bitcoin which has not moved in a year is now at an all-time high.”

“This shows that the proportion of Bitcoin holders who are long-term HODLers is increasing, which is positive as it shows that short-term holders are selling to those with long-term conviction.”

If Bitcoin falls below $30,000 it will encounter very thin on-chain support, and the next important support zone is at $26,700, according to chartist Ali Martinez.

Cryptocurrency trader Michaël van de Poppe tweeted that the more he sees targets like $8,000 or $12,000 for BTC, the more convinced he is that “we’re getting into the end stages of this downwards run.” The trader said it’s a “tremendous opportunity” as the markets have capitulated already and altcoins are in a bear market for a year.

So as you can see the experts opinions are all over the place. This is certainly not the first time the cryptocurrency market has gone into a Bear Market and it won’t be the last. Have a game plan during
thes times is the second best thing you can do. The #1 play is to focus on your long-term strategy and DON’T PANIC!

The crypto crash, explained, (Has Cryto Winter 2022 Arrived? or Is Now time to buy the Dip?)