This article is scheduled to be published on February 1, 2024. On November 1, 2023, three months ago, I invested the majoritiy of my investment captial into the crypto market.
On Novemeber 7th I posted an article here on cmgcrypto.com and dropped a podcast encouraging those that have been sitting on the sidelines, to take a serious look at the crypto market, and to Buy Bitcoin now! At the time Bitcoin was trading for around $37,000.00. Over the past 90 days the highest closing price has been, $49,024.14. At that time I recommended that crypto newbies take some profits, but also felt if it broke $50,000.00 it would attract many more retail investors and go on a significant run. Obfiously, I am not a financial advisor, just a crypto enthusiasit that pays close attention to the crypto market.
Today, I have allocated on my investment captial into the crypto space. I feel in my heart an soul that the next bull run has started and it will end up being the biggest we may see in our lifetime. All research indicates that this the last time normal investors have the opportunity to particiapte in a bull run before the influx of trillions of dollars into the market form Wall Street Investment firms.
Bitcoin is not the only crypto currency that experience a massive up swing in 2023 severk other crypto projects have doubled, even , 5x 10x or more I am very pleased with the growth I have seen in my Top 10 Crypto picks I shared at the start of 2023.
In this article I am going to share what I believe is coming next and why I firmly believe that the bull market isn’t over but it’s just getting started! This is what I would consider the preseason to the real Bull Run that’s coming later in this year and I’ll lay out my case in this aricle as to why I believe those things.
It’s not just me being hopeful or optimistic it’s not just me being like, Oh guys don’t worry just trust me it’s all going to work out, I never communicate that way. I have some solid Market fundamentals that I built this belief from and I’m going to share those in this article. You can do your own research and judge for yourself what you want to believe.
I believe we’re going to see another crypto Bull Run really kickoff in 2024 I have 10 different bullish catalyst that I’m looking at in the market right now and I’m just going to share with you in this article.
Catalyst number one is the inflows from the Bitcoin spot ETF despite what you may have heard on social media the Bitcoin spot ETFs have been radically successful. Anyone saying otherwise is probably just saying that because the price of Bitcoin went down after the introduction.
Here are the facts, from the top four fastest ETFs to ever reach a billion dollars in assets number one is one of the recently approved Bitcoin spot ETF’s. Number two is a gold ETF and number three and four are two of the other Bitcoin spot ETFs. So out of the top four ETF’s in history, three of the four are the Bitcoin spot ETFs!
Some people were pointing out that a lot of the overall volume from these spot Bitcoin ETFs were coming from gbtc outflows meaning people that were selling gbtc. If you don’t know what that is it was basically last cycle a low quality way for you to get exposure to bitcoin. It is for those who want to apporach the crypto market like they were buying a stock.
The reason I call it low quality is because typically in a bull market it would sell at a premium so you’re buying Bitcoin at a higher price than it actually was and in a bear Market it sells at a discount meaning everyone in it who’s wanting to sell their Bitcoin. If they want to sell they’re going to sell it a discount because the price of gbtc is actually lower than the price of Bitcoin meaning they would take a huge loss.
This led to not only a lot of people not selling the gbtc because they just didn’t want to take that loss and they were hoping in the future would get converted into an ETF but also it led to a lot of speculators buying at that discounted price hoping again that eventually this would get turned into an ETF. Now that it has gotten turned into an ETF of course we’re seeing a lot of outflows as people are either capitalizing on that trade they made. They bought it at a discount and now they’re finally taking profits or people that were stuck in it can finally get out and they’re selling.
My first point around all this is that the inflows or the people that are actually buying all these other ETFs are mostly offsetting the outflows that are coming from gbtc so that’s good. Second point would be that gbtc outflows will likely slow down over the coming weeks this is basically just a giant unlock event and the market will even out over time. The third point is that as far as Wall Street is concerned they don’t care if the volume is coming from people selling or people buying they are literally happy either way either way to them they are earning fees.
To put it into context these ETFs did $10 billion in volume in their first 3 days alone out of the other 500 ETFs launched throughout all of 2023 combined so you take all those ETFs and you combine them they combined did only $450 million in volume with the best one doing $45 million in volume. The Bitcoin ETFs are absolutely dominating and this is only expected to ramp up over time.
Keep in mind that many of the largest traditional institutions are not able to jump into these ETFs on day one they move slow they have to prep their clients. They must get all their ducks in a row and all their paperwork done and they need to do their due diligence on these Investments. Typically this process could take anywhere from a couple months to sometimes over a year so there’s a lot of incoming Capital that hasn’t yet been unlocked that’s going to slowly start to trickle into these ETFs.
We also expect these gbtc outflows to eventually start slowing down meaning over the next year we should see Bitcoin ETF inflows actually make a meaningful impact on the overall price of Bitcoin. Of course again won’t happen all at once it’s going to be more of like a trickle effect over the coming year but there’s a lot of really smart people who know a lot more about ETFs than I do that are saying that this ETF is a big deal. Wall Street is really pumped about the results that they’re seeing and that a lot of these larger financial institutions are working double time to try to jump through all the hoops they need to jump through.so that they can allocate into this Bitcoin ETF.
I spend a lot of my personal education time listening to podcasts. I’ve read a bunch of different newsletters and reports on like how much capital they think that these institutions are going to end up allocating into these Bitcoin ETFs. I’ve heard anywhere from 1% to 5%. It really doesn’t matter, if it’s 1% to 5% it doesn’t matter we’re talking about trillions and trillions of new dollars. Trillions and trillions of dollars of liquidity coming into the crypto ecosystem over the next coming years. How can this not impact the price of Bitcoin and the entire crypto currencey market?
Bullish Catalyst number two Bitcoin ETFs are going to be promoting and pushing these ETFs to their client bases hard, that’s going to mean Bitcoin ETF commercials which we’ve already seen a bunch of Bitcoin commercials going out from some of these larger institutions. The will also be publishing client research so that their clients feel comofrtable investing.
They will see portfolio recommendations where they’re going to suggest that you want to put x amount of your portfolio allocated towards Bitcoin or you want to put y amount of your portfolio allocated into this Bitcoin ETF or other crypto ETF’s that are expected to be approved in 2024.
With the approval of bitcon ETF’s financial entities on the planet just became crypto’s number one marketing arm, does that make sense?
Bullish Catalyst number three We are about to go through an entire rate cutting cycle. The FED has indicated that we should see about three different rate Cuts going into 2024 and rate cuts are bullish for stocks in cryptos. These upcoming rate custs will allow more liquidity to flow into the system, Investors will have cheaper access to to Capital and less incentive for these trillions and trillions of dollars to be locked up sitting in treasuries. Not only will we see rate Cuts in 2024 but we actually see further rate Cuts as well in 2025. If you don’t understand rate cuts and why they’re bullish one thing you can almost always count on is that when the FED raises rates that the prices of stocks and crypto is going to go down and on the opposite end of the spectrum when the FED lowers rates. You can almost always expect that the prices of stocks and crypto is going to go up so if we do in fact see rate Cuts as expected, it should be very very good for crypto and stocks as a whole.
Bullish Catalyst number four 2024 is expected to be the year of crypto air drops and what some are calling the wealth effect 2024. It is predicted that there’s going to be a ton of different crypto airdrops. Many qualify crypto projects has been sitting on sidelines holding out on launching a token until there was more favorable market conditions. Now that we’re finally seeing some favorable market conditions you can expect a lot of projects to launch an air drop of their tokens.
If you don’t know what air drops are you can check out the article here. WHAT ARE CRYPTO AIRDROPS AND HOW DO THEY WORK? Basically when a project or a protocol prints new tokens out of thin air and then drops them to all the different users of that protocol. These tokens, before they air drop them to users, are worthless like they’re just bites of code. They have no value they didn’t pay any money for these tokens but as soon as these tokens hit users wallets the market gets to decide what these tokens are worth. Typically the market chooses to decide that these tokens have value and like magic typically billions of dollars of value is printed essentially out of thin air. To give you an idea over 2023 alone I made around $7,000 air drop farming. The reason this is bullish, iswhen users get all these extra funds they typically feel a lot wealthier and because of this they’re a lot more risk adverse and they typically go in like a buying spree buying up nfts, buying up different tokens and just allocating more into the crypto space and these buying sprees have the effect of pushing up the prices of a lot of these cryptos. Something really similar happened back in 2020 before the 2021 bull run with yield farming where a lot of these yield farming protocols were printing all these tokens. People were feeling really rich and they take these tokens & invest in other crypto projects.
It ended up pushing up the prices of a lot of these assets and with so many coming aidrops expected in 2024 and just the massive success of air drops lately I’m expecting a similar type of effect in 2024.
Bullish Catalyst number five is changing retail sentiment. The average investor, still isn’t interested in buying crypto but soon they will be. The narrative around crypto is going through a major shift and that’s because Larry Fink and a lot of these ETF companies like we talked about earlier are making sure they’re praising crypto on talk shows, running commercials and ads and marketing these ETFs to their entire client base essentially legitimizing crypto.
For example think of all the damage that was done post FTX’s collapse. Mainstream news stories were constantly talking about crypto and it wasn’t in a positive light they were using words like scam, fraud. criminals. terrorists etc. Those were the words used to talk about crypto for the entire past year on top of that there’s a lot of very real pain as a lot of these retail investors jumped in at the top of the market and lost a lot of money.
It is really easy for Joe Blow retail investor to believe that crypto is a scam and a fraud Etc when they lose a lot of money investing in it . Especially for those who know very little about crypto, when you have these traditional bankers & others come on TV and talk about how crypto is dying and it’s going to zero and it’s never coming back. It’s again easy to believe those things when you don’t know anything about the space other than you lost a lot of money. Now people are telling you that it’s run by terrorists and criminals for these people, for a lot of retail the Bitcoin ETF is really the first time that they’re learning that Bitcoin and crypto isn’t actually dead.
I’ve literally had family members call me and say hey I heard that the founder of Bitcoin. Sam Bakman Freed. got arrested are you okay? There’s a lot of retail that was certain crypto was over, it wasn’t coming back. The Bitcoin ETF has been the first piece of evidence showing them that maybe bitcoin is not over.
They might be intrigued that the price of bitcoin’s gone up. The ETF story might be interesting to them but they’re not like jumping back into crypto, not after an entire year of being told it’s a scam and a fraud. They’re thinking to themselves they did this thing before they lost a lot of money they’re not going to get tricked this second time.
They know better, so currently retail is still in the disbelief stage of the market they don’t actually believe that Bitcoin and crypto are coming back they think that this rally will likely fail like the others have. There was a lot of crypto investors that were just expecting the masses to jump back into Bitcoin and crypto as soon as this ETF got approved.
However I personally expect it to be a slow. It is always different on the inside looking out than it is on the outside, looking in! People always follow the crowd, and fear of loss is the number one motivator to mankind.
To move the masses it is sort of like dominoe. I expect more and more people to slowly flip bullish on crypto as time goes on and that’s just because the average person tends to beieve what they’re told to think. They were told for a long time to believe that crypto was a scam and a fraud so that’s what they believe. However now they’re being told that crypto and tokenization is going to revolutionize finance and change the world and they’re being told these things by the single most authoritative figures in all of Finance by literally Wall Street itself. I can promise you again that you are not bullish enough on this one fact alone, Bitcoin has essentially unlocked the largest liquidity Source on the planet at the same time that retail is slowly figuring things out.
I think that sentiment isn’t going to flip all at once it’s going to be a trickle that’s just going to slowly turn into streams and eventually turn into like a raging river that kicks off the entire bull market.
Bullish Catalyst number six is the Bitcoin having many have completely forgotten because of the Bitcoin ETF but the Bitcoin having is just 3 months away, If you’re unfamiliar with what the having is, it’s when the amount of Bitcoin that gets mined per block by Bitcoin miners gets cut in half. This happens every four years and so far historically 100% % of the time that we have seen a Bitcoin having it is kicked off a massive crypto Bull Run and when I say 100% of the time I mean literally. There has not been ever a time where we’ve had a Bitcoin having where it has not been followed by an epic crypto Bull Run. NEVER IN HISTORY has that not happened it’s also usually a huge media event, the having is like this thing that only happens every four years. It is a great content for a lot of media organizations, a lot of influencers a lot of people on Twitter so again they talk a lot about it and it brings Bitcoin to the Forefront of people attention, So the having coupled with all this other stuff happening to me is another great indicator and a huge Catalyst for the coming bull run that I believe is on the horizon.
The four-year cycle the fouryear cycle is heavily tied in with the having but it’s worth mentioning as its own separate thing every four years the crypto markets have essentially gone through the exact same cycle and if you follow and believe in these Cycles then that would mean that 2024 and 2025 would be typically the bull phase of the cycle
Bullish Catalyst number seven is all the growth and Innovation and actual building in the crypto markets that has happened over the last couple years crypto has not been idle during the bare Market it has been building and improving making things cheaper, easier .safer,faster. Overall building new products and ideas in this cycle retail will come back and find that things are a lot easier to use than they were last go around.
We have a ton of promising interop Solutions like across Polygon shared sequencers that will remove the heches and pain that comes with having to switch between chains for example with something like polygon 2.0’s new ecosystem you might not even realize when you’re using multiple chains. It will feel seamless and essentially like you’re using the same chain as you switch between these various networks we have better wallets like Rabbi where you don’t have to manually added networks or even switch the wallet does that for you as well.
A lot of these retail users who maybe last cycle were primarily using just the exchanges can now get on chain really easily.
Catalyst number eight is crypto gaming. I’ve shared alot about crypto gaming and how it Compares versus traditional gaming here at CMG Crypto and why I’m really bullish on it as an overall concept. There are several articles and videos you can check out on this site that goes in depth on Metaverse and Crypto Gaming.
The reason I’m really excited about 2024 is that a lot of these games that raised all this Capital back in 2021 during the last bll run it’s taken a couple years to actually develop these games. The Sandbox and Gala Games for example.and now in 2024 and 2025 a lot of these games are finally ready to deploy and these crypto games that are coming out look absolutely insane.
The quality is a leagues above the type of games we saw in 2021 and I believe we’ll have some breakout hits in 2024 and 2025 that will prove the demand for crypto gaming and Kickstart a crypto gaming Bull Run bullish
Catalyst number nine is the potential to have a pro crypto Administration in the US
It’s no secret that the current Administration has been insanely hostile towards crypto. I am so sick of Elizabeth Warren I don’t even knwo how to communicate the ill feelings I have towards her and her cronies. Do they really think that we don’t understand that large financial institutions are scared of crypto and funding their re-election campaigns?
However with the 2024 election that could potentially change dramatically crypto has been working really hard to fund Pro crypto politicians.
By the way if you want to know where your politicians and your state stand on crypto there’s great resources like stand with crypto by coinbase where you can actually see where a politician leans in their views on crypto so that means on a state level on a congress level and potentially on a presidential level we could see Pro crypto candidates. I also think with the Stakes so high and potentially it’s looking like a Trump versus Biden rematch we could see each side offering some form of stimulus that is definitely not a very common view.
I think I’m like one of the only people that has mentioned something like that and although I think another round of stimulus checks would be really financially irresponsible. I am sure Biden wouldn’t actually care if it got him into office. I don’t think he cares and I don’t see why he wouldn’t do whatever if not going to have to actually bear the burden or worrying about cleaning up the mess after four years in office and the consequences of printing those stimulus checks will have to be cleaned up by somebody else. Again I’m not saying it’s a good idea I’m just looking at the incentives and saying well why wouldn’t Biden whatever that’s a possibility overall obviously a pro crypto. Maybe it will be a wildcard Hale Mary, but stimulus checks would be very bullish for crypto as a whole.
So there you go my 9 Bullish Catalyst and why I believe we’ll see a crypto Bull Run in 2024. Again I am a crypto enthusist and investor, and not a financial advisor. As always none of this was investment advice. I am encouraging my friends and family to buy cryptocurrency. None of this was me telling you to buy crypto or telling you when you should buy crypto.
If you have any questions or comments or anything that you feel should be added to this article let me know. If you want to stay in the loop on my vetted crypto plays and research, you can subscribe free, to our Insiders Newsletter here.